Keyword "Iran Project" - List of latest news (646 results)

02:24 Iran Update, April 22, 2025

Unspecified Iranian sources told a Qatari-owned, London-based outlet on April 22 that the US-Iran nuclear talks are progressing “beyond belief.” Iran could calculate that by framing the talks as positive, even if the reality does not match, Iran could del

22/04 Iran Update April 21, 2025

Iran and the United States held a second round of nuclear talks in Rome on April 19.

19/04 Iran Update, April 18, 2025

Iran proposed a three-stage nuclear deal proposal that caps Iranian uranium enrichment but would leave the necessary infrastructure in place to enable Iran to rapidly rebuild its nuclear program if the deal collapsed.

18/04 Iran Update, April 17, 2025

Senior Iranian political and military officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, met with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman in Tehran on April 17. Saudi Arabia may seek to reassure Iran about its positions on a potential strike on Iran and

17/04 Iran Update, April 16, 2025

Iran is unlikely to accept zero uranium enrichment and full dismantlement of its nuclear program

16/04 Iran Update, April 15, 2025

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may calculate that engaging in nuclear negotiations with the United States is the best option for preserving the Iranian regime's stability. Khamenei discussed the United States-Iran nuclear talks and economic

15/04 Iran Update, April 14, 2025

Iran and the United States held nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman, on April 12. The Iranian delegation, which was led by Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, presented Iran’s demands and red lines to the US delegation, which was led by US Special Envoy t

12/04 Iran Update, April 11, 2025

Iran will likely attempt to use nuclear negotiations with the United States to delay a potential strike on its nuclear facilities and the imposition of snapback sanctions.

11/04 Iran Update, April 10, 2025

A Senior Iranian official threatened to reduce cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) if external threats against Iran continue. Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani stated on April 10 that Iran could expel IAEA

10/04 Iran Update, April 9, 2025

US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted at least 10 airstrikes on April 8 targeting a Houthi military base on Mount Nuqum on the eastern outskirts of Sanaa City. The strike reportedly injured Houthi President Mahdi al Mashat and a senior Houthi

09/04 Iran Update, April 8, 2025

Iran agreed to “high-level” talks with the United States in Oman on April 12, but it is very unlikely to agree to some of the reported US demands. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff will l

08/04 Iran Update, April 7, 2025

Regional diplomatic sources told CNN on April 6 that the Yemeni government is preparing for a ground offensive against the Houthis. The offensive would reportedly consist of advances from the south and east and along the western Yemeni coast to take

05/04 Iran Update, April 4, 2025

US Central Command (CENTCOM) is conducting a military operation in Yemen that aims to render the Houthis unable or unwilling to continue attacks that threaten US ships and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. This does not imply that CENTCOM must

04/04 Iran Update April 3, 2025

Iran is continuing to try to bolster its air defenses in preparation for a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. Iran has built a new Ghadir phased-array radar in West Azerbaijan Province in northwestern Iran in recent months, according to commercially

02/04 Iran Update April 2, 2025

Iran continued to threaten US bases and forces, likely to try to discourage a potential US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid US threats to strike these facilities.

02/04 Iran Update, April 1, 2025

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) thwarted a Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian plan on April 1 to conduct a “major” attack targeting Israelis abroad.  The IDF killed Hassan Ali Mahmoud Badir, who was a member of Hezbollah Unit 3900 and the Islamic Revo

01/04 Iran Update, March 31, 2025

Iran continues to threaten the United States with military action to dissuade the United States from a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid new US threats to strike the nuclear facilities.

29/03 Iran Update, March 28, 2025

Recent statements from senior Iranian officials about indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States may aim to appeal to several domestic audiences.

28/03 Iran Update, March 27, 2025

Iran responded on March 26 to US President Donald Trump's letter proposing nuclear negotiations. Iran signaled it is open to indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States but rejects direct negotiations under the current conditions.

27/03 Iran Updates (Oct. 7 War)

This page collects the refocused Iran Updates that ISW and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute began publishing on October 7, 2023. ISW and CTP refocused the Iran Update to cover the October 7 War. The new sections

26/03 Iran Update, March 26, 2025

The United States has asked the Syrian interim government to curtail foreign fighters’ influence in the Syrian government in exchange for partial sanctions relief, according to Reuters.

26/03 Iran Update, March 25, 2025

Top Iranian officials reportedly authorized Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi to "advance any diplomatic initiative in relation to the United States," according to an Iranian expert close to the regime. It is not clear who precisely

25/03 Iran Update, March 24, 2025

The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted at least 27 airstrikes targeting Houthi military infrastructure and leadership in several locations across Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen since March 21.

22/03 Iran Update, March 21, 2025

 Senior Iranian officials are trying to obfuscate Iran’s role in leading the Axis of Resistance by denying that Iran exerts direct control over groups like the Houthis, likely to avoid escalation with the United States.

21/03 Iran Update, March 20, 2025

A senior official from Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba implicitly warned on March 20 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would resume attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria if US forces do not withdraw from Iraq by the end

20/03 Iran Update, March 19, 2025

President Donald Trump’s March 5 letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei set a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, according to an Axios report. Iran is very unlikely to agree to a new deal on a two-month timetable given its current p

19/03 Iran Update, March 18, 2025

Recent tit-for-tat sectarian killings and local support for pro-Assad insurgent cells will likely hamper Syrian interim government efforts to promote security and community reconciliation in coastal Syria.

18/03 Iran Update, March 17, 2025

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Houthi leaders and infrastructure in Yemen since March 15. The strikes are in response to the Houthi attack campaign on international shipping, which the Houthis launched in

17/03 Iran Update, March 14, 2025

Iran, China, and Russia issued a joint statement on March 14 effectively condemning the US “maximum pressure” strategy vis-a-vis Iran.

14/03 Iran Update, March 13, 2025

 The Houthis have sought to obtain hydrogen fuel cells from unspecified Chinese suppliers to increase the range and payloads of their drones, according to a November 2024 Conflict Armament Research (CAR) investigation.

12/03 Iran Update, March 11, 2025

The Syrian interim government has taken initial steps to prosecute individuals who committed crimes during recent insurgent activity in western Syria between March 6 and 10. Interim government forces arrested five individuals on March 11 for committing

11/03 Iran Update, March 10, 2025

Current Syrian interim government counterinsurgency operations are insufficient to defeat pro-Assad insurgent cells across Syria. I

10/03 Understanding Syria’s Emerging Insurgency

The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. The most organized insurgents are Alawites in the coastal areas. These Alawites are likely supported by Hezbollah smuggling networks, given these networks’ overlapping a

08/03 Iran Update, March 7, 2025

Insurgent cells continued to attack Syrian interim government personnel across Latakia and Tartous provinces as Syrian forces deployed to re-impose security over the coastal region.

08/03 The West Must Offer Syria's Interim Government Tightly Conditioned Aid against an Emerging Assadist Insurgency

An Assadist insurgency has emerged in western Syria and stands to help US adversaries expand their influence there.

07/03 Iran Update, March 6, 2025

Small-scale insurgent cells have started to emerge and attack Syrian interim government forces in certain areas of Syria. Former Assad regime members conducted coordinated attacks on Syrian military checkpoints and patrols in Jableh, Beit Ana, and

06/03 Iran Update, March 5, 2025

US sanctions on Houthi officials for coordinating with Russia demonstrate how Russia facilitates Iranian-backed groups’ terrorism in the Middle East. The United States designated the Houthis a foreign terrorist organization and sanctioned eight Houthi o

05/03 Iran Update, March 4, 2025

Russia offered to mediate between the United States and Iran, according to unspecified sources speaking to Bloomberg. Russian mediation would reportedly cover Iranian nuclear activities and support for the Axis of Resistance. It is far from clear that

04/03 Iran Update, March 3, 2025

Iran appears to be revising its air defense concepts since Israel neutralized the Iranian S-300s in 2024. Brigadier General Ali Reza Sabahi Fard, who commands the Artesh Air Defense Force and Khatam ol Anbia Joint Air Defense Headquarters, said on March

28/02 Iran Update, February 28, 2025

Iran and China continue to cooperate to circumvent US sanctions. At least eight tankers have participated in ship-to-ship transfers to move Iranian oil to China in recent weeks.

28/02 Iran Update, February 27, 2025

US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander Mazloum Abdi rejected a call from Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan to disarm and dissolve. Ocalan, who is imprisoned in Turkey, said that “all groups must lay [down] their arms” and c

27/02 Iran Update, February 26, 2025

 Iran increased its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium by 92.5 kilograms (kg), or 2.2 significant quantities, according to an unreleased International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report.

26/02 Iran Update, February 25, 2025

The British ambassador to Israel stated on February 25 that the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) has given Iran until the end of June 2025 to conclude a new nuclear deal and prevent the imposition of snapback sanctions. It is very unlikely

25/02 Iran Update, February 24, 2025

The Syrian interim government began a two-day National Dialogue Conference on February 24 on 24-hour notice. The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-affiliated Preparatory Committee started sending invitations to over one thousand Syrians nationwide and

22/02 Iran Update, February 21, 2025

Iranian Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari—adviser to the IRGC commander—threatened to attack "all [US] bases and ships in the region" during a speech at the Great Prophet 19 military exercise on February 20.

21/02 Iran Update, February 20, 2025

Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders have resurfaced threats to conduct a direct attack on Israel, likely to try to shape Israeli decision making and deter a potential Israeli strike on Iran. Several senior IRGC commanders,

20/02 Iran Update, February 19, 2025

The Syrian Preparatory Committee does not plan to include the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) or its political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), in the National Dialogue Conference.

19/02 Iran Update, February 18, 2025

A Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) commander stated that the SDF and the governing body in northeast Syria agreed to merge their forces into the Syrian Defense Ministry on February 17. A commander within the Northern Democratic Brigade—a faction of the S

18/02 Iran Update, February 17, 2025

Unspecified sources told Bloomberg that Russia appears to be nearing a deal with the Syrian interim government to maintain a “reduced” military presence in Syria

16/02 Iran Update, February 16, 2025

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) continued to shell Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions along the M4 highway north of Raqqa on February 14 and 15.

15/02 Iran Update, February 15, 2025

Russian cargo vessels have continued to evacuate military assets from the port of Tartus as Russia negotiates its presence in Syria with the interim government.

15/02 Iran Update, February 14, 2025

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Raphael Grossi stated that Iran will likely have 250kg of uranium enriched up to 60% by the next IAEA report in March 2025. This marks a significant increase in Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent enriched u

14/02 Iran Update, February 13, 2025

The newly-appointed Syrian Preparatory Committee provided some details about how it plans to select representatives to attend the National Dialogue Conference. This conference will reportedly facilitate the drafting of a new Syrian constitution, and

13/02 Iran Update, February 12, 2025

Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara formed a preparatory committee on February 12 that is mostly comprised of pro-HTS individuals who are loyal to Shara. The composition of this committee suggests that it will likely make decisions that align with

12/02 Iran Update, February 11, 2025

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to resume military operations in the Gaza Strip if Hamas fails to release Israeli hostages on February 15. Netanyahu made this announcement after he convened a security cabinet meeting on February 11

11/02 Iran Update, February 10, 2025

Hamas said on February 10 that it would postpone the release of Israeli hostages on February 15, which would be a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Hamas likely aims to retain its hostages as leverage in negotiations. Hamas’ military wing s

09/02 Iran Update, February 9, 2025

 Senior Iranian military leaders have urged Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent months to approve the construction of a nuclear weapon, according to an unspecified Iranian official speaking to the Telegraph.

08/02 Iran Update, February 8, 2025

Hamas released three male Israeli hostages on February 8. Hamas gave the hostages to the International Committee of the Red Cross in Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip. Israel, in exchange, released 183 Palestinian prisoners, including 111 whom the

08/02 Iran Update, February 7, 2025

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei categorically rejected nuclear negotiations with the United States during a speech to Iranian military personnel in Tehran on February 7.

07/02 Iran Update, February 6, 2025

Many of the most prominent Iraqi Sunni political parties have emphasized the need for political action to achieve long-standing Sunni political demands ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections in October 2025.

06/02 Iran Update, February 5, 2025

Iran is downplaying the significance of US “maximum pressure” sanctions while signaling some openness to nuclear negotiations with the West. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the maximum pressure policy is a “failed experiment” in

05/02 Iran Update, February 4, 2025

Iran is conducting nuclear research that would enable it to build a nuclear weapon in a period of months. The New York Times reported on February 3 that a "secret team" of Iranian weapons engineers and scientists is "exploring" a faster approach to build

04/02 Iran Update, February 3, 2025

Unknown actors detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) along the M4 highway outside of Manbij and killed at least 19 people on February 3. Syrian media reported that unknown actors parked the VBIED near the Hassin station, outside

03/02 Iran Update, February 2, 2025

The Iraqi parliament voted to approve an amendment to the Iraqi budget law to provide salaries for Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) employees and resume oil exports from the Iraqi Kurdistan Region on February 2. Several Iraqi security and political

02/02 Iran Update, February 1, 2025

Hamas released three living male hostages, including one Israeli-American hostage, on February 1. Hamas released two hostages in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, and one hostage at the Gaza Port, in the northern Gaza Strip. This marked the first

01/02 Iran Update, January 31, 2025

Iran is financially supporting the military reconstitution of Lebanese Hezbollah.

31/01 Israel’s Operational Success and Strategic Shortcomings in the Gaza Strip

The Israeli campaign into the Gaza Strip was a military success but has fallen short thus far of setting conditions to replace Hamas as a governing entity. The Israeli government enumerated three objectives at the beginning of the war: destroy Hamas’ m

31/01 Iran Update, January 30, 2025

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) released three Israeli hostages during the third hostage release on January 30. Hamas released a female soldier hostage in the northern Gaza Strip. Hamas transferred her to the International Committee of the Red

30/01 Iran Update, January 29, 2025

The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim Syrian government held a “victory conference” on January 29, during which it formalized much of its consolidation of power since the fall of Bashar al Assad. The conference announced the appointment of HTS lea

29/01 Iran Update, January 28, 2025

Turkish officials appear to believe that a planned call by imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to disarm would pressure the SDF into an agreement to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led interim government. Turkey

28/01 The Russia-Iran Coalition Deepens

Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally shifted and intensified the Russo-Iranian relationship. Tehran has leveraged Moscow’s growing material and financial requirements to sustain its war effort to support Tehran’s own domestic and

28/01 Iran Update, January 27, 2025

Gazan civilians began to return to the northern Gaza Strip on January 27 after Hamas fulfilled outstanding obligations under the ceasefire agreement. Hamas agreed to release a female civilian hostage held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) after the IDF

27/01 Iran Update, January 26, 2025

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) agreed to release a female civilian hostage after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) prevented Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip on January 25 and 26. PIJ confirmed that hostage, Arbel Yehud, is “alive a

26/01 Iran Update, January 25, 2025

Israel announced on January 25 that it will prevent Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip because Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement.

25/01 Iran Update, January 24, 2025

Israel stated that the list of four female soldier hostages whom Hamas will release on January 25 would violate the ceasefire agreement.

24/01 Iran Update, January 23, 2025

CTP-ISW has recorded no verifiable reports of kinetic activity in the Gaza Strip or attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel since the last data cut off on January 22.

23/01 Iran Update, January 22, 2025

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) announced the formation of joint operations rooms in the West Bank on January 22 with Hamas and al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades’ fighters.

22/01 Iran Update, January 21, 2025

Hamas coordinated the distribution of aid and facilitated the movement of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip, which demonstrates that Hamas retains some degree of governing authority after 15 months of war. The Associated Press reported that Hamas has

20/01 Iran Update, January 19, 2025

Hamas released three female Israeli hostages after the ceasefire went into effect. The IDF withdrew from areas in the northern and southern Gaza Strip on January 19. The Hamas-run government media office reported that Hamas deployed “thousands” of figh

19/01 Iran Update, January 18, 2025

The Israeli government approved the Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage deal on January 18. The ceasefire will go into effect at 1:30AM ET on January 19 and the release of Israeli hostages will start at 9:30AM ET on January 19. Unspecified security sources

17/01 Iran Update, January 16, 2025

The Israeli cabinet will vote on the ceasefire-hostage agreement on January 17 after it postponed its vote due to delays in Hamas approving an unresolved issue. Both sides resolved the issue.

16/01 Iran Update, January 15, 2025

Israel and Hamas approved a ceasefire-hostage agreement on January 15. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani announced that mediators from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt will monitor the ceasefire, which will take effect on January

15/01 Iran Update, January 14, 2025

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is confronting small pockets of locally organized fighter cells in areas under its control. Some of these groups are led by known Assad regime officials who have military experience and control pre-existing militias. HTS-led

14/01 Iran Update, January 13, 2025

Israeli and Hamas officials appear to be optimistic after achieving a "breakthrough” in ceasefire negotiations in Doha on January 13. Israel and Hamas have yet to solve at least two outstanding issues, however.

13/01 Iran Update, January 12, 2025

Iran conducted an air defense exercise for the second time in recent days. This activity reflects Iranian concerns about possible airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, as Tehran has continued to expand its nuclear program. 

12/01 Iran Update, January 11, 2025

The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Syrian interim government announced that it thwarted an attempted Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) attack on a prominent Shia shrine outside Damascus. The Syrian Interior Ministry announced on January 11 the

11/01 Iran Update, January 10, 2025

There are early indications that some Iraqi Sunni and Kurdish politicians are trying to build an alliance ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections in October 2025.

10/01 Iran Update, January 9, 2025

Fighting reportedly erupted along parts of the frontline between the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in northern Syria amid indications of an upcoming SNA offensive against the SDF. Local, anti-SDF

09/01 Iran Update, January 8, 2025

Turkey and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) are preparing for a possible offensive into US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled territory in Syria.

08/01 Iran Update, January 7, 2025

Six notable Iraqi Sunni politicians issued a statement on December 14 calling for a “comprehensive national dialogue” to address political and economic grievances. Senior Iraqi political and security officials appear to have rejected the recent calls for

07/01 Iran Update, January 6, 2025

Iran appears to be feeling more vulnerable after the fall of the Assad regime, Israeli military action against Iranian air defenses and missile production, and the defeats suffered by Hamas and Hezbollah. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

06/01 Iran Update, January 5, 2025

Iran is likely taking a series of steps to prevent instability in Iraq after the fall of the Assad Regime.

05/01 Iran Update, January 4, 2025

An Alawite organization accused the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim Syrian government of failing to address instances of sectarian violence. The Alawite Islamic Forum in Syria released a statement on January 3 expressing its support for the

04/01 Iran Update, January 3, 2025

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attempted to justify Iran’s sacrifices in Syria and emphasized resilience amid setbacks during a speech on January 1 that commemorated the death of former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Qassem Soleimani.

03/01 Iran Update, January 2, 2025

A Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) delegation met with Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al Shara in Damascus on December 30. There were no specific, public reports of meaningful or tangible progress toward an agreement between Shara and the SDF,

01/01 Iran Update, December 31, 2024

A new group announced its opposition to the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim government. Armed opposition by the group—named the Syrian Popular Resistance—would likely exacerbate sectarian tensions in Syria and even risk driving fissures in the HTS-

31/12 Iran Update, December 30, 2024

Iran appears increasingly as though it seeks to foment sectarian conflict in Syria, which it could then exploit to establish proxy and partner militias there. Outlets affiliated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Armed Forces

30/12 Iran Update, December 29, 2024

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al Shara detailed a three-to-four-year timeline for building new Syrian state, during which he presumably would rule and could heavily influence the allocation of political power.

29/12 Iran Update, December 28, 2024

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) and its allies are contending with locally-organized cells of fighters in western Syria. HTS’s response to the current violence is fueling accusations of sectarianism and arbitrary targeting, which could in turn trigger further

28/12 Iran Update, December 27, 2024

An explosion from a former SAA position in Homs City suggests that HTS does not yet have full control on the ground and that local groups and individuals can access and repurpose unexploded ordinance.

27/12 Iran Update, December 26, 2024

Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict. Social media reports have alleged that individuals affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) have killed and kidnapped Alawites and other

25/12 Iran Update, December 24, 2024

The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) defended against Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) attempts to recapture SDF-held ground on the west bank of the Euphrates River near the Tishreen Dam and Qere Qozak Bridge. The SDF reported its forces

24/12 Iran Update, December 23, 2024

The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Syrian interim government stated it will discuss mechanisms for disarming and dissolving the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) with SDF leadership, according to unspecified SDF sources. The sources cited by a S

23/12 Iran Update, December 22, 2024

A senior official in the political wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) expressed the readiness to negotiate with the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim government in order to determine the future role of the SDF. The HTS-led interim government

22/12 The first Hilal Art and Media House of Central Province was opened in Arak 

Arak - IRNA - The first specialized Halal house for art and media in the central province was opened on Sunday evening with the blessing of Hazrat Fatemeh Zahra (PBUH), during a ceremony attended by the advisor of the head of the Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic of Iran and a group of officials of this province in Arak. .

22/12 Iran Update, December 21, 2024

US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf described Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al Shara as “pragmatic” but did not specify what concrete steps Shara or the HTS-led interim government will take to combat terrorism o

21/12 Iran Update, December 20, 2024

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed readiness to help Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) form a new political system in Syria.

20/12 Iran Update, December 19, 2024

Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces by threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas. Turkey massed forces on the

19/12 Iran Update, December 18, 2024

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is calling for a unified Syrian state without federal regions, which aligns with Turkey's objective of destroying the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and constitutes an implicit call by HTS to disarm the SDF.

18/12 Iran Update, December 17, 2024

The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) agreed to extend their temporary ceasefire in northeastern Syria “to the end of the week.”

17/12 Iran Update, December 16, 2024

The HTS-controlled interim government is continuing to reconcile with former members of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). The Russian-backed SAA 5th Corps in Lattakia is reportedly negotiating with the interim government to “merge its forces” into the new Syr

15/12 Iran Update, December 14, 2024

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani is consolidating political and security power under HTS in a post-Assad Syrian government. HTS-led forces assumed control of Daraa City and the Nassib border crossing from the Southern Operations

14/12 Iran Update, December 13, 2024

The Iranian regime is still coming to terms with the fall of the Assad regime and reflecting on its former Syria policy.

13/12 Iran Update, December 12, 2024

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is trying to retain control over the forces that it leads to maintain its moderate image and prevent sectarian conflict. The SDF is factionalizing under internal and external pressure. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (

11/12 Iran Update, December 10, 2024

Senior Syrian officials from the deposed Bashar al Assad regime have begun to transfer power to the HTS-led interim government as of December 10. Outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed al Jalili reported that former Assad officials are working with the interim

10/12 The Reshaping of Iran’s Axis of Resistance

The fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria marks the end of the greater Iranian project in the Levant for the foreseeable future. This defeat comes as the other main pillars of Iranian influence in the Levant—Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in

10/12 Iran Update, December 9, 2024

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is establishing a transitional government and reconciling with members of the former Syrian regime and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). HTS is likely attempting to improve its image among the Syrian people and international

09/12 Iran Update, December 8, 2024

Syrian opposition forces toppled the Bashar al Assad regime on December 7 after only 11 days of fighting. Opposition forces declared victory over Assad as they advanced into Damascus. The regime negotiated its surrender as Assad fled to Russia without

08/12 Iran Update, December 7, 2024

The Bashar al Assad regime faces imminent collapse. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) appears to have already collapsed itself, as its units have fled repeatedly from advancing opposition forces across the country. The SAA is combat ineffective and has yet to

07/12 Iran Update, December 6, 2024

The Bashar al Assad regime faces an existential threat given the widespread collapse of regime forces and lack of sufficient external backing to bolster these forces.  

06/12 Iran Update, December 5, 2024

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-aligned opposition groups have begun a campaign to capture Homs after capturing Hama City on December 5.

05/12 Iran Update, December 4, 2024

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)–aligned opposition groups are likely prioritizing the capture of Hama City. Fateh Mubin—a joint operations room led by HTS—is conducting a campaign that appears to have several different subordinate objectives. Fateh Mubin's mai

04/12 Iran Update, December 3, 2024

Syrian opposition forces have continued to advance rapidly and pushed through regime defensive lines in the northern Hama countryside on December 3. Opposition forces—led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)—advanced through the northern Hama countryside and sei

03/12 October 7 War (Iran Updates)

This page collects the refocused Iran Updates that ISW and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute began publishing on October 7, 2023. ISW and CTP refocused the Iran Update to cover the Israel–Hamas war. The new sections a

03/12 Iran Update, December 2, 2024

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have reportedly deployed to northern Syria to help defend the Bashar al Assad regime against Syrian opposition forces.

02/12 Israels Victory in Lebanon

Israeli operations in Lebanon have defeated Hezbollah and compelled the group to end its involvement in the October 7 War. On November 26, Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire deal that ended Hezbollah's attacks into Israel and required the group to

02/12 Iran Update, December 1, 2024

Syrian Arab Army (SAA) reinforcements fortified defensive lines north of Hama City and prevented Syrian opposition forces from advancing into Hama City.

01/12 Iran Update, November 30, 2024

Syrian opposition forces seized Aleppo City and advanced toward Hama City. Pro-Syrian regime forces have failed to mount an effective defense against the opposition offensive. The Turkish-backed SNA launched a separate offensive into Syrian regime-held

30/11 Iran Update, November 29, 2024

Syrian opposition forces continued their offensive into Syrian regime-held territory and advanced into Aleppo City. The opposition forces have continued expanding their offensive eastward since launching the surprise offensive on November 27. Thousands

28/11 Iran Update, November 27, 2024

The Israel-Lebanese Hezbollah ceasefire has held as it went into effect on November 26.

27/11 Iran Update, November 26, 2024

Israel and Lebanon approved a ceasefire to end the war in Lebanon on November 26. The ceasefire is set to come into effect on November 27 at 2:00 am GMT. The text published by Israeli media requires a full Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawal from

26/11 Iran Update, November 25, 2024

Israel and Lebanon are expected to reach a ceasefire agreement within the next few days that would achieve stated Israeli war aims.

25/11 Iran Update, November 24, 2024

A top adviser to the Iranian supreme leader discussed Lebanon and ceasefire negotiations, nuclear policy, and a potential Iranian response to Israel’s October 25 strike. Lebanese Hezbollah is likely firing large numbers of rockets at Israel to pressure t

24/11 Iran Update, November 23, 2024

Iranian media reported that Iran is activating 5,000 centrifuges in response to the censure resolution that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed on November 21.

23/11 Iran Update, November 22, 2024

Iran is activating a “substantial number” of advanced centrifuges, increasing the rate of Iranian uranium enrichment. Iran is responding to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passing a censure resolution submitted by the E3 (

22/11 The Cost of Inaction in Yemen

The Houthis now pose a strategic threat with global implications for the United States and its allies.

22/11 Iran Update, November 21, 2024

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) censure resolution against Iran on November 21. The resolution censured Iran for failing to cooperate with the IAEA and comply with

21/11 Understanding Israel’s Campaign to Defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) campaign into Lebanon is degrading Hezbollah and destroying its military capabilities and infrastructure in southern Lebanon. The IDF campaign is a response to Hezbollah’s rocket and drone attacks into Israel since October

21/11 Iran Update, November 20, 2024

Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem announced in a November 20 speech that Hezbollah would require a permanent ceasefire and the preservation of Lebanese sovereignty in any agreement with Israel.

19/11 Iran Update, November 18, 2024

The continued looting of humanitarian aid trucks demonstrates that Hamas’ internal control remains limited and severely weakened. Armed groups looted 98 of 109 humanitarian aid trucks that entered the southern Gaza Strip via the Kerem Shalom border c

18/11 Iran Update, November 17, 2024

The IDF killed the head of Hezbollah’s media office, Mohammad Afif, in central Beirut on November 17.

17/11 Iran Update, November 16, 2024

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly called on Lebanese Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire agreement that would require Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Two individuals affiliated with the

16/11 Iran Update, November 15, 2024

Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons research program in the past year. This assessment is based on publicly reported US and Israeli intelligence about Iranian research activity at the Parchin Military Complex outside Tehran in recent

15/11 Iran Update, November 14, 2024

Israeli forces have likely disrupted Lebanese Hezbollah’s ability to fire into Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported the daily rate of Hezbollah attacks have declined on average over the “past few weeks” and have decreased by half in the past w

14/11 Iran Update, November 13, 2024

The damage caused by Israel’s October 25 strike targeting Iran’s ballistic missile production facilities combined with Iran’s decreased missile stockpile makes another Iranian large-scale ballistic missile attack targeting Israel unlikely.

13/11 Iran Update, November 12, 2024

Newly-appointed Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reaffirmed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will continue its operation in Lebanon until it accomplishes its mission. Katz made these comments during a meeting with the IDF General Staff. Katz

12/11 The Consequences of the IDF Strikes into Iran

The precise nature of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes into Iran on October 25 has obscured the significant damage inflicted on critical Iranian military infrastructure.

12/11 Iran Update, November 11, 2024

Hezbollah officials continue to claim that Israeli ground operations in Lebanon are failing to achieve Israeli objectives. The head of Hezbollah’s media office, Mohammad Afif, claimed in a November 11 press conference in Beirut that Israel has been u

11/11 Iran Update, November 10, 2024

The IDF has destroyed the ability of Lebanese Hezbollah to conduct ground attacks into northern Israel, according to senior IDF officers. Hezbollah continues to threaten civilians in northern Israel with relatively long-range weapons, however.

10/11 Iran Update, November 9, 2024

The IDF continued clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip. The IDF also allowed aid trucks to enter the northern Gaza Strip for the first time in several weeks.  Israeli forces conducted raids in the northern West Bank, killing a Palestinian f

09/11 Iran Update, November 8, 2024

Qatar instructed Hamas’ political leadership to relocate from Doha, according to US officials and Israeli media. The Qatar-based members of the Hamas Political Bureau would in this case need to find a new base of operations, which could be Iraq.

07/11 Iran Update, November 6, 2024

Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem claimed that Hezbollah would outlast Israel in a “war of attrition” in a speech on November 6

06/11 Iran Update, November 5, 2024

Fatah is attempting to extend its control over the Gaza Strip after the October 7 War, but Fatah’s lack of pro-Fatah Palestinian Authority (PA)-affiliated military forces in the Gaza Strip will make this extremely difficult. Fatah and Hamas have met in C

05/11 Iran Update, November 4, 2024

Iran reportedly warned some Arab countries that it will conduct a complex attack on Israel in retaliation for the recent Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes on Iran. Unspecified Arab and Iranian officials told the Wall Street Journal that the upcoming

04/11 Iran Update, November 3, 2024

The Israeli Defense Minister emphasized that Iran is “pouring everything [it] can” into the West Bank, indicating that Iran will very likely attempt to pursue a different strategy when rebuilding Palestinian militias to fight Israel again.

03/11 Iran Update, November 2, 2024

The Iranian regime is continuing to signal that it will respond to the recent Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes into Iran on October 25, although the regime does not appear to have decided how it will respond. Western officials believe that the regime

02/11 Iran Update, November 1, 2024

Western media reported that Iran will retaliate for the recent Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes around Iran, possibly by launching one-way attack drones and ballistic missiles from Iraq.  

01/11 Iran Update, October 31, 2024

Israeli state-owned broadcaster Kan published a US-drafted ceasefire proposal to end the fighting in Lebanon.

31/10 Iran Update, October 30, 2024

Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem reiterated normal Hezbollah themes and ideological points in his first speech as secretary general on October 30, suggesting his appointment will not spur drastic organizational change.

30/10 Iran Update, October 29, 2024

The precise nature of the recent Israeli strikes into Iran has partially obscured the serious damage these strikes inflicted on critical Iranian defense and military infrastructure. These strikes could disrupt Iranian ballistic missile production and

29/10 Iran Update, October 28, 2024

Senior Israeli officials stated that Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran on October 25 "severely damaged" Iran's air defense capabilities, which would make Iran more vulnerable to future attacks.

28/10 Hezbollah’s Military Forces Are Failing in Lebanon

Lebanese Hezbollah is attempting to obfuscate the reality that its military forces in southern Lebanon are disorganized and conducting ineffective military operations against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Hezbollah’s military forces have been badly d

28/10 Iran Update, October 27, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) inflicted serious damage to the Iranian integrated air defense network during its strikes on Iran on October 25.

27/10 Iran Update, October 26, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted three waves of strikes into Iran on October 25. The strikes were in response to the large-scale ballistic missile attack that Iran launched against Israel on October 1.

26/10 Israeli Retaliatory Strikes on Iran

Israel launched several waves of strikes targeting around 20 locations in Iran last night using about 100 manned and unmanned aircraft. Israeli targets included highly sensitive air defense assets and facilities tied to the Iranian drone and missile

26/10 Iran Update, October 25, 2024

Four unspecified Iranian officials outlined to Western media how Tehran could retaliate in response to an Israeli strike on Iran. These comments were likely an information operation meant to coerce Israel into limiting its strike on Iran.

25/10 Iran Update, October 24, 2024

Hamas is seeking Russian support in pressuring the Palestinian Authority (PA) to negotiate over a national unity government with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Hamas Political Bureau member Mousa Abu Marzouk met with Deputy Russian Foreign Affairs Minister

24/10 Iran Update, October 23, 2024

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Iran’s intentions to increase ties with Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23.

23/10 Iran Update, October 22, 2024

A senior Israeli intelligence official told Iranian anti-regime media that Israel’s recent operations in Lebanon have disrupted Iran’s ability to provide funds to Hezbollah. The source stated that Israeli operations targeting key Hezbollah leadership and

22/10 Iran Update, October 21, 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Office recently gave US officials a document detailing Israel’s conditions for a ceasefire and diplomatic solution to end the war with Hezbollah.

21/10 Iran Update, October 20, 2024

Palestinian fighters killed an IDF brigade commander in Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip. Palestinian fighters recently detonated a pre-planted improvised explosive device (IED), killing IDF 401st Armored Brigade Commander Colonel Ehsan Daqsa.

20/10 Iran Update, October 19, 2024

Hezbollah likely conducted a drone attack targeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea, Israel, on October 19. Three drones crossed into Israeli territory from Lebanon on October 19. The IDF said that one of the drones "hit a b

19/10 Iran Update, October 18, 2024

The IDF Chief of Staff estimated that Israeli forces have killed at least 1,500 Hezbollah fighters since beginning operations against the group, which is consistent with CTP-ISW estimates.

18/10 Sinwar’s Death Will Not End Israeli Operations in the Gaza Strip

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will not end the operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to trigger a rethink within Hamas about its basic strategy, which is to survive the war and secure a ceasefire that results in a

17/10 Iran Update, October 16, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to seize terrain in several Lebanon towns along the Israel-Lebanon border. Israeli forces have previously seized or partially secured terrain in Maroun al Ras, Yaroun, and Blida in southeastern Lebanon.

16/10 Iran Update, October 15, 2024

Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem gave a speech detailing Hezbollah’s strategy and vision of the war on October 15. This was Qassem's third speech since Israel struck and killed Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on S

14/10 Iran Update, October 13, 2024

The United States deployed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system and US military personnel to operate the system to Israel on October 13 to bolster Israeli air defenses following the April 13 and October 1 Iranian attacks on

13/10 Iran Update, October 12, 2024

Lebanese Hezbollah is falsely presenting Israeli ground operations as a failure in order to degrade Israeli will and underscore Hezbollah’s own resilience in the face of massive Hezbollah losses since mid-September. Hezbollah claimed that Israeli forces h

12/10 Iran Update, October 11, 2024

The IDF 91st Division has seized terrain in an unspecified area of southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah direct fire attacks into Israel, supporting the stated Israeli war aim of returning Israeli civilians to the north.

11/10 Iran Update, October 10, 2024

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened senior Saudi officials, warning that the Axis of Resistance would attack Saudi energy assets and infrastructure if Saudi Arabia supports an Israeli attack on Iran, according to anonymous Iranian

10/10 Iran Update, October 9, 2024

Israeli leaders have continued deliberating over how to respond to the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with the Israeli Security Cabinet to discuss potential Israeli responses on

09/10 Iran Update, October 8, 2024

Israeli political leaders indicated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed Hashem Safi ed Din—the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah—in an airstrike on Beirut on October 4. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement on Oc

08/10 Iran Update, October 7, 2024

The IDF deployed a third division—the 91st Division—to southern Lebanon on October 7 for “focused and delimited” ground operations against Lebanese Hezbollah.

07/10 Iran Update, October 6, 2024

Western and Middle Eastern outlets have suggested that Israel killed or injured Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani on October 4.

06/10 Iran Update, October 5, 2024

An Israeli military correspondent reported that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing to expand its ground operations in southern Lebanon. The IDF plans to send more forces, according to the correspondent, which would build upon the two divisions

05/10 Iran Update, October 4, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces conducted an airstrike on an underground bunker in Beirut on October 3. The airstrike targeted a meeting of senior Hezbollah officials, including the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah, Safi ed Din.

04/10 Iran Update, October 3, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued advancing into southern Lebanon on October 3. Geolocated imagery indicates Israeli troop movements around the western axis of advance, specifically around Aitaroun and Yaroun.

03/10 Iran Update, October 2, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has advanced into southern Lebanon along at least two axes.

02/10 Iran Update, October 1, 2024

Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile attack that targeted Israel from Iranian territory on October 1. Iran claimed to launch this attack in response to Israel’s killing of senior Axis of Resistance leaders including Hezbollah Secretary General H

01/10 Iran Update, September 30, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it began a "targeted and delimited ground operation in southern Lebanon" on September 30. The IDF said that ground forces will operate to target Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure in villages along the

30/09 Iran Update, September 29, 2024

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is trying to help Lebanese Hezbollah recover from the severe disruption that Israel has imposed upon it.

29/09 Iran Update, September 28, 2024

Lebanese Hezbollah confirmed that Israel killed its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike in Beirut on September 27. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that Israel was aware of Nasrallah’s whereabouts for months and conducted the a

28/09 Iran Update, September 27, 2024

The IDF is still investigating whether Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah survived the IDF strike that targeted his headquarters in Dahieh, Beirut, on September 27.

27/09 Iran Update, September 26, 2024

Israeli sources provided additional details on some military effects that Israel is trying to achieve in Lebanon. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said on September 26 that the IDF is currently working to degrade

26/09 Iran Update, September 25, 2024

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) leadership is signaling to its forces that it will conduct a major ground operation into Lebanon imminently.

25/09 Iran Update, September 24, 2024

The intensifying operations between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah are part of the broader war that Israel has fought since October 7, 2023. Hezbollah has conducted almost daily attacks into Israel since the war began in order to compel Israel to accept

24/09 Iran Update, September 23, 2024

Israel set new war objectives for Lebanon on September 16. Accomplishing these objectives would require the IDF to undertake a second major military campaign in Lebanon as part of the October 7 War.

23/09 Iran Update, September 22, 2024

The IDF conducted a large-scale air campaign into Lebanon. This activity marks three consecutive days of heavy Israeli airstrikes into Lebanon. Lebanese Hezbollah launched its own strikes into Israel, which is consistent with Hezbollah’s stated intent to

22/09 Iran Update, September 21, 2024

Israel has issued new security protocols for some of its northern communities in anticipation of intensifying conflict with Lebanese Hezbollah.

21/09 Iran Update, September 20, 2024

Israel appears to be exploiting disarray in Lebanese Hezbollah in order to inflict further damage upon the group.

20/09 Iran Update, September 19, 2024

Israeli sources reported on September 19 that Israeli officials are deciding whether the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will conduct an offensive into Lebanon.[1] Hezbollah will almost certainly not cease rocket fire into northern Israel, which will

19/09 Israel is Defeating Hamas, But Destroying Hamas Will Require a Post-War Vision

Translating the defeat of Hamas’ brigades into the destruction of the organization will require additional Israeli or international measures to prevent Hamas from recovering. Hamas’ military and political destruction requires the articulation of a poli

19/09 Iran Update, September 18, 2024

Israel continued to destroy Lebanese Hezbollah tactical communications devices on September 18.

18/09 Iran Update, September 17, 2024

Israel simultaneously detonated thousands of pagers used by Lebanese Hezbollah members across Lebanon and Syria on September 17. Lebanese officials reported that around 2,800 individuals were injured, though some reports suggest that the number is closer

17/09 Iran Update, September 16, 2024

Israel is refocusing its operations in the Gaza Strip to prioritize “destroying the pillars of Hamas’ civil rule . . . especially the distribution of humanitarian aid,” according to an anonymous Israeli official. The official told Israeli media that contr

16/09 Iran Update, September 15, 2024

Israeli air defenses “partially intercepted” a Houthi ballistic missile that entered Israeli airspace on September 14. Iran, the Houthis, and the rest of the Axis of Resistance could learn lessons from the Houthi attack in order to increase the effe

15/09 Iran Update, September 14, 2024

The IDF Air Force struck two buildings in Sheikh Radwan, Gaza City, on September 14 where Hamas fighters were operating. The IDF reported that fighters used the buildings to conduct operations and produce weapons.[2] The buildings were located near the D

13/09 Iran Update, September 12, 2024

Israeli special operations forces conducted a highly unusual raid into Syria on September 8 to destroy a major Iranian-backed precision missile factory and recover intelligence from the site. The mission targeted the Syrian Scientific Studies and

12/09 Iran Update, September 11, 2024

The IDF Southern Command’s fire control commander said that Hamas no longer functions as a conventional military organization but added that the IDF requires another year to fully destroy Hamas’ military and governance capabilities.

10/09 Iran Update, September 9, 2024

Iran recently delivered over 200 Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, according to Ukrainian intelligence. An unspecified Ukrainian military source told British media on September 6 that Russia transported the missiles to an unspecified

09/09 Iran Update, September 8, 2024

A Jordanian truck driver killed three Israelis present at the Allenby Bridge border crossing between Jordan and the West Bank on September 8. Senior Iranian military officials have continued to signal that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to

07/09 Iran Update, September 6, 2024

Iran has sent hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia to support Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the Wall Street Journal.

06/09 Iran Update, September 5, 2024

The Biden administration is reportedly reevaluating its approach to ceasefire-hostage negotiations after Hamas killed six hostages, according to unspecified US officials cited by Axios on September 5

05/09 Iran Update, September 4, 2024

Senior Iranian military officials have continued to signal that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks. Armed

04/09 Iran Update, September 3, 2024

Hamas has continued to exploit Israeli hostages in an information operation likely in order to increase pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire-hostage agreement. Hamas likely calculates that this effort could create more favorable terms for Hamas in

02/09 Iran Update, September 2, 2024

The Masoud Pezeshkian administration is continuing to signal its willingness to pursue nuclear negotiations with the West. Iranian media reported on September 2 that Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi appointed Majid Takht Ravanchi as deputy foreign

01/09 Iran Update, August 31, 2024

At least two Palestinian fighters attempted to carry out two coordinated car bombing attacks in the Gush Etzion area of the West Bank on August 30. No militia has claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing, though the attack targeting

30/08 Iran Update, August 29, 2024

US and international health officials confirmed on August 29 that Israel has agreed to implement a temporary humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip to vaccinate children against polio.

29/08 Iran Update, August 28, 2024

Israeli forces conducted a large-scale counterterrorism operation in the West Bank on August 27 in order to degrade Palestinian militia networks there. The operation is responding to Hamas’ attempted suicide bombing in Tel Aviv on August 18 and is meant a

28/08 Iran Update, August 27, 2024

Iran has tried to insert itself into the ceasefire-hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas since Israel killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, according to regional sources speaking to Emirati media. An anonymous source told the

26/08 Iran Update, August 25, 2024

Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a drone and rocket attack on Israel on August 24 in response to Israel killing a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr. Hezbollah fired 200-300 projectiles, including around 20 one-way attack drones, in two waves into

25/08 Iran Update, August 24, 2024

A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on August 24 to “listen to the results of the negotiations” between US, Egyptian, Israeli and Qatari mediators. Senior Hamas political official Izzat al Rishq announced that a Hamas delegation led by head negotiator Kha

24/08 Iran Update, August 23, 2024

The factors seemingly driving Iran to delay its direct attack on Israel are temporary. These factors will disappear with time, which would increase the likelihood of an Iranian attack on Israel. 

23/08 Iran Update, August 22, 2024

Iranian interest in the progress of Gaza Strip ceasefire-hostage negotiations suggests that elements of the Iranian regime are likely delaying a retaliatory strike on Israel until ceasefire talks conclude. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-affiliated

22/08 Iran Update, August 21, 2024

The Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN suggested on August 20 that Iran’s Axis of Resistance could conduct a ground attack into Israel in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman I

21/08 Iran Update, August 20, 2024

Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials have continued signaling that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh,

20/08 Iran Update, August 19, 2024

The United States, Israel, and international mediators plan to continue ceasefire talks despite Hamas’ rejection of the latest ceasefire-hostage proposal.... An anonymous US official said that the Biden administration still expects a resumption of talks f

18/08 Iran Update, August 17, 2024

Hamas has rejected optimism from US and international mediators that a ceasefire-hostage agreement is close to being reached.

17/08 Iran Update, August 16, 2024

The United States and foreign mediators seem to be attempting to delay or indefinitely postpone an Iranian and Hezbollah attack targeting Israel by both threatening Iran and presenting a potential ceasefire-hostage agreement as an off-ramp from further

16/08 Iran Update, August 15, 2024

Iran is likely trying to build operational surprise ahead of its expected attack on Israel. CTP-ISW continues to assess that the most likely course of action is that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will conduct a coordinated drone and missile attack on

15/08 Iran Update, August 14, 2024

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei indicated that he still believes Iran must respond to Israeli operations targeting senior Axis of Resistance leaders in recent weeks, despite back-channel threats from the United States emphasizing that Israel would

14/08 Iran Update, August 13, 2024

Iran is likely trying to expand divisions within Israel and between Israel and the United States ahead of a possible Iranian drone and missile attack. Three anonymous senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters on August 13 claimed that Iran and

13/08 Iran Update, August 12, 2024

US and Israeli officials have warned that Iran will likely conduct a large-scale, coordinated attack targeting Israel in the days ahead. These warnings are consistent with Western intelligence sources previously assessing that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah

11/08 Iran Update, August 10, 2024

Different elements of the Iranian regime have advocated for varying responses to Israel’s killing of Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. The different messages across the regime are very likely emblematic of differences in

09/08 Iran Update, August 8, 2024

CTP-ISW continues to assess that coordinated large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel by Iran and its Axis of Resistance is the most likely Iranian response to Israel’s killing of senior axis leaders.

08/08 Iran Update, August 7, 2024

    Iran Update, August 7, 2024 Johanna Moore, Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, Alexandra Braverman, Katherine Wells, Ria Reddy, Siddhant Kishore, and Brian Carter Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and I

07/08 Iran Update, August 6, 2024

Unspecified US officials told Axios on August 5 that the US intelligence community expects Iran and its Axis of Resistance to conduct two waves of attacks in its retaliation against Israel for the death of Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. US intelligence

06/08 Iran Update, August 5, 2024

Iranian armed forces-run Defa Press published a list of potential civilian and military targets in Israel on August 5, which likely aims to decrease Israel’s ability to effectively defend against an Iranian attack by causing Israel to air- and m

05/08 Iran Update, August 4, 2024

Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel in response to Israel killing Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. CTP-ISW previously outlined this scenario as

04/08 Iran Update, August 3, 2024

Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah have refused to speak with US and Arab diplomats trying to deescalate between Israel and Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal on August 3. The Wall Street Journal reported that  the United States and Israel are preparing

02/08 Iran Update, August 1, 2024

Iran and the Axis of Resistance are messaging that they will conduct a coordinated, large-scale attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel killing several Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent

01/08 Iran Update, July 31, 2024

Israel killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 30

31/07 Iran Update, July 30, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) likely killed a senior Lebanese Hezbollah commander in southern Beirut on July 30. The IDF Air Force targeted Fuad Shukr in response to a Hezbollah rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli children in the Israel-controlled G

30/07 Iran Update, July 29, 2024

The Israeli Security Cabinet approved an Israeli military response against Lebanese Hezbollah on July 28. The Israeli Security Cabinet authorized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to determine the “manner and t

29/07 Iran Update, July 28, 2024

Hezbollah likely conducted the July 27 rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli children in Majdal Shams, northern Israel.

28/07 Iran Update, July 27, 2024

The IDF assessed that Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a rocket attack that killed at least ten Israeli children and “youths” and wounded 30 other Israeli civilians in Majdal Shams, northern Israel, on July 27. The IDF assessed that Hezbollah conducted the at

27/07 Iran Update, July 26, 2024

A new Iranian-backed Iraqi militia claimed two rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria on July 25.

26/07 Iran Update, July 25, 2024

US, Israeli, and Arab officials are reportedly considering former Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan as an interim leader of Palestinian security forces in the post-war Gaza Strip. Dahlan is a former Fatah official who was a close advisor to former Palestinian

25/07 Iran Update, July 24, 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint meeting of the US Congress on July 24. Netanyahu described his vision for “a demilitarized and deradicalized” post-war Gaza Strip but did not offer details about how to achieve this vision.

24/07 Iran Update, July 23, 2024

Hamas, Fatah and other unspecified Palestinian political factions agreed on a vision for post-war governance of the Gaza Strip on July 23 during “intra-Palestinian reconciliation” talks in Beijing. The factions signed a joint declaration setting out thei